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NCAA Women's Soccer |
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Somis Sports |
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Most improved teams |
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2022 Season |
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Notes: |
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Most improved teams
are ranked based on improvement from the prior season (i.e. 2022 vs.
2021). The calculation is primarily
related to the team's overall improvement but also favors team's with higher
ratings and, to a lesser extent, factors in the relative variability of each
of the three divisions (D1, D2 and D3). |
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Below is an
example. In the example, Team A is in
D2 and Team B is in D3. The
calculation involves five steps as follows: |
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1. Calculate the
amount by which each team improved. |
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Division 2 |
Division 3 |
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Rating increase (points) |
Team A |
Team B |
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2021 rating |
0.33 |
(2.69) |
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2022 rating |
1.71 |
(0.25) |
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Net point increase |
1.38 |
2.44 |
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2. Restate the
improvement in terms of V with V being the
variability of the Division.
Improvement is measured starting at
negative 2V; the minimum 2021 rating, for calculation purposes, is -2V (see Team B below). |
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Division 2 |
Division 3 |
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Division variability (V) |
1.075 |
1.174 |
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Improvement in terms of V |
Team A |
Team B |
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2021 rating |
0.31 |
(2.29) |
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2021 rating, min = -2V |
0.31 |
(2.00) |
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2022 rating |
1.59 |
(0.21) |
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Net V increase |
1.28 |
1.79 |
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3. Calculate the
weighted average V increase using the tables below. Apply a multiplier to the calculation. The multiplier is explained in #4 below. |
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Team A - Improvement (V) |
Calculation |
Multiplier |
Overall |
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From -2 to -1 |
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0.333 |
- |
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From -1 to 0 |
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0.667 |
- |
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Greater than 0 |
1.28 |
1.000 |
1.280 |
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1.28 |
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1.280 |
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Mulitiplier |
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1.250 |
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Weighted average |
1.600 |
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Team B - Improvement (V) |
Calculation |
Multiplier |
Overall |
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From -2 to -1 |
1.00 |
0.333 |
0.333 |
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From -1 to 0 |
0.79 |
0.667 |
0.527 |
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Greater than 0 |
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1.000 |
- |
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1.79 |
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0.860 |
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Mulitiplier |
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1.250 |
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Weighted average |
1.075 |
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4. Average the V
points increase (#2 above) with the Weighted Average increase (#3
above). Note: In section 3, the
multiplier is set so that Overall
increase and the Weighted Average equally contribute to total team
improvement. |
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Increase in terms of V |
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Team A |
Team B |
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Overall points increase (V) |
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1.28 |
1.79 |
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Weighted average increase
(V) |
1.600 |
1.075 |
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Average increase (V) |
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1.440 |
1.433 |
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5. Convert the V
increase to the Points increase by multipliying the V increase by the overall
variability of all teams (D1, D2 and D3). |
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Adjusted increase
measured in points |
Team A |
Team B |
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Average V increase (#4 above) |
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1.440 |
1.433 |
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Weighted average increase
(V) |
1.111 |
1.111 |
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Adjusted increase in
points |
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1.60 |
1.59 |
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The following conceptual
rules were used in making the calculation: |
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A. Improvement is
measured starting at -2V (#2 and #3 above). |
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B. Overall
improvement is measured 50% based on the net increase (#2 above) and 50%
based on a weighted average increase (#3 above). |
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C. For the weighted
average calculation, the overall improvement from -2V to 0V is credited at
50%, i.e. 33.3% from -2V to -1V and 66.7 to 0V. In other words, if a team improves from -2V
to 0V, then its improvement for purposes of the calculation is 1V (50% of
2V). |
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D. Divisional
variability should be neutralized (see #2 above). Otherwise, any one division could have an
inordiante or minimal amount of teams making the all division list. |
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Nevertheless,
these conceptual rules are subjective.
For example, per the Somis Sports methodology, Texas Permian Basin
placed 17th on the D2 most improved teams list and 70th of all NCAA teams. On the other hand, if the calculation was
based purely on net increase in the overall rating (#1 above), the Falcons
would have finished 1st in D2 and 2nd in the NCAA. |
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